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Comments about Abhisit and the future

Nation has timeline.

Here are some comments.

Twice-elected Thaksin alienated elements of the old elite in the palace, military and bureaucracy, who saw his immense popularity among the urban and rural poor as a drain on some of their power.

Abhisit failed to win over Thaksin’s rural supporters in the elections, but is believed to have the backing of the kingdom’s old establishment.
Thawee Suraritikul, a political science professor at Sukhothai University, said Abhisit’s Democrats will face a shaky coalition and a slim majority.
“Their first three months will be a crucial period. They have many problems waiting for them — economics, and the sharing of power among coalition partners,” AFP

“The Democrats are positioned to win this round. They seem to have the votes, the support of the private sector and the business community which hopes for temporary respite,” said Sukhum Nuansakul, a political scientist at Bangkok’s Ramkhamhaeng University, shortly before the vote began.
“But the peace is likely to be short-lived. The fundamental problem has not been resolved,” Sukhum said. “A Democrat win sets the stage for another round of street protests, this time by pro-Thaksin groups.” AP

The country is on a spiral backward of what goes around comes around. We have many copy cats. Democrat copied any measures they have accused TRT to Puea Thai to buy their way to government with cabinet package to former coalition parties and add “moral” obligation to console that they switched to flavor the “country.” The Red may also want to copy the Yellow. Seeing that the measure to block places work. It is up to them to choose to do or not to do it.

“Abhisit hasn’t put his foot in much rubbish so he’s one of the more credible parliamentarians out there,” said Prudhisan Jumbala, a political science lecturer at Bangkok’s Chulalongkorn University. “A number of people hope he can last a bit longer to put the house a little more in order before dissolving Parliament and calling for new elections.”

Abhisit has been endorsed by protesters who led a 193-day campaign against the People Power Party, and by top military generals and business groups who want political stability. Thailand’s consumer confidence in November fell to the lowest in almost six years after demonstrators forced the closure of Bangkok’s airports, and the global recession eroded exports.

Abhisit defeated Pracha Promnok, the leader of a minor party who was supported by Puea Thai, comprised of allies of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. Puea Thai is the largest party in Parliament after welcoming former members of the People Power Party, which won 68 more seats than the Democrats in last year’s election.

Protester Demands

The People’s Alliance for Democracy, an unelected street- protest group backed by the Democrats, made 13 demands for the new government, including canceling Thaksin’s passport and preventing “evil people from taking power.” Bloomberg

The same Bloomberg quoted a Thammasat lecturer as saying:

“Abhisit united different factions who wanted to see unity and peace in the country, but they are not aligned because of common policy,” said Somjai Phagaphasvivat, a political science lecturer at Thammasat University. “It could hold together for about six months before conflicts emerge again.”

I do not think he can reunited the red fraction which are anticipating how they would take their voice back. It could be certain that most government coalition parties may not claim the missing 26 seats in the parliament in the by-election, particularly in the North and Northeast. It would be shaky government due to narrow margin of vote. I do not expect that they can also control Friends of Newin’s vote in the parliament either.

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Filed under: Political Sciences

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