~Meaw & More~


Reactive blogger (~and more~)


How we can measure the progress, success and failure or anything in the south.
One of an area that everybody in any kind of trades has to deal with is assessment. We do risk assessment, situation assessment, and operation assessment. We also do qualitative and quantitative assessment. many will even cite more assessment model than I could even do it. The area is of course not limited to people in security studies. Everybody assess something or looking for indicators to say “this is bad, we’d need some intervention” or “it is getting better and perhaps we could prepare to leave.”

Most common indicative researches about the situations in the south of Thailand, particularly in conflict ridden areas, concerns casualties (as many conflict-based security studies do.), attitude, and opinion about how they would feel secure or insecure or what would they want to do. Researches also assess the situations on victims and perpetrators and headcounts. OK, minus “analysis” and non- assessment researches that could be speculated, assessment plays important roles in the south.

But the situation is changing. Headcounts will still do. However, with the current phenomena of displacement and flight from one villages to either the other areas in Thailand or oversea and more road block or request for armed officers to leave a village or to come to a village. Perception of what is “security” among different groups of people would be also important. Well I know they have studied this but it would go beyond “how safe do you feel with military presence, 1 means unsafe and 5 means safe” in questionnaires. It is likely to continue measuring the number of death and injury. On the other hand the new responses towards insecurity must be addressed by research

As I have to go to sleep now, I’d like to post a final remark: how can we measure success of failure of the government to plan and act? Only by counting the death? If the death in this government is lower than the previous, could this be a “success” or an “improvement” What if they government can reduce death rate but fail to make one group of people secure enough to stay? How we can estimate threat of silent terror?
Plus security is also about feeling, it could be biased.


Filed under: Methodology, Political Sciences, Security

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