Mr. Predictable

I have been balancing my works, my thesis and going to see Thailand Open (which had been put as a priority after I decided if no one wants to watch, I will go on my own). I was away in 2004 and 2005 and in 2006 I was engaged in other work and in 2007 I was just disinterested. While I went to watch the Djorkovics and later the so-called Mr. Unpredictable. And I just decided that if I don’t put a space in my schedules, chatting and shopping and working aside for 4 hrs, then I would not be able to kick them aside and even though Yevgeny Kafelnikov were in Bangkok, I would not have the courage or the experience of putting my entertainment first and go for it. I’d be in a workaholic rat race forever if I don’t stop.

Ok, let’s talk about Dr. Prawes, “Mr. Predictable,” earlier he compared the situation of Thailand as chicken in a closed bamboo basket, where he proposed the rhizomatic structure of civil participation against three brick top-down structure. Deleuze and Guattarri or Max Weber should have been credit a bit? And the top down structure is not necessarily “un” democratic or representing dictatorship. The man has also proposed the new transformative national agenda also presented in Matichon and it has be welcomed.

While I was out watching another unpredictable match before writing about the new opportunity of getting out of limiting space of enclosed chicken basket, he came out with an article on “old” and “new” politics and “araya prachatipatai” (civil democracy?)

Please welcome the article in “การเมืองเก่าเน่าหนอนชอนไช การเมืองใหม่อารยะประชาธิปไตย” [the old rotting politics and the new civil democracy]Matichon and Manager (note how every opposing characteristic is being put in polarized dichotomy using a table to present the old-bad/new-good). I don’t need to translate or recap it, because, apart from, it is predictable. The academia is rushing to provide proposal and supports, hoping that it wold solve the national crisis. Dr. Prawes is proposed to chair the new national independent studies/working group, commission or whatever.

So it goes Mr. Predictable.

Filed under: Political Sciences , New Politics, old politics, People Power Party, prawes wasi, rhizome

You can’t hide…

So it is now public and the thai person (delegate) was confirmed in Bangkok Post:

The Thai team who took part in talks with insurgents’ representatives in Indonesia acted in a private capacity without official support from the army or the government, army chief Gen Anupong Paojinda said on Tuesday.

The Thai negotiators at the two-day meeting were led by former Fourth Army commander Kwanchart Klaharn, who was an adviser to former prime minister and defence minister Samak Sundaravej.

They met five representatives from the Pattani Malay Consultative Congress at the Presidential Palace in Bogor, near Jakarta, according to the Indonesian government.

“He [Gen Kwanchart] probably went there personally as a scholar. He is not a representative of the government,” said Gen Anupong, who is scheduled to visit the far South on Wednesday.

The Foreign Affairs Ministry has also insisted the government was not a party to the talks, which were mediated by Indonesia’s Vice President Jusuf Kalla.

People in the far South are not at all hopeful of the outcome, according to Nimu Makaje, former chairman of the Yala Provincial Islamic Committee.

Mr Nimu said it was not clear whether the rebel sympathisers’ group had any real power to deliver changes.

He said people were disappointed earlier this year when former army chief and Ruam Jai Thai Chart Pattana leader Chetta Thanajaro claimed a ceasefire was being reached with the so-called Thailand United Southern Underground, which went on national television to make the announcement in July.

Funny durrr, they never really ask real people. The pro and con of a recognition is clear. When you recognized power of a rep over the rest of the people, you listen to them not the people, who have been ruled both side by fear and state repression.

Filed under: Political Sciences , deep south, dialogue, south, thailand

MFA said they didn’t send any reps

Pursuant to the previous post about the closed door talk at Isara. I will have to finish my knitting scarf.

Filed under: Political Sciences

A Closed Door Talk in Indonesia on the South

UPDAT on the talk:

Reuter identified a “delegation” among “[...] five representatives from the Thailand’s predominately Muslim deep south and the Buddhist-led government in Bangkok attended the two-day meeting which ended on Sunday.” as including “Kwanchart Klaharn” yet the MFA naturally denied government’s involvement in the talk, according to Tharit Charungvat, MFA spokesperson.

In Bangkok, Foreign Ministry spokesman Tharit Charungvat said his government was not involved in any talks in Indonesia and it had not asked Jakarta to act as a mediator.

“We did not send any representatives to Indonesia,” Tharit said. “Our stance is that the situation in the south is an internal conflict and we will not set up any talks with the militants.”

This article came short of my reading because I am not a Jane’s subscriber. In short:

However, incident statistics compiled by Jane’s from both official and independent sources clearly indicate the extent to which the security forces have succeeded in reducing the violence.

Radio Australia reporting a talk between “The Thai government and community representatives from the country’s restive Muslim South” Matichon published this piece, too. (link to my clippings storage) The That agency said the progress of the talk will not be available for the public and the press.

Ok, why they sneaked out to meet and will not talk about it, I will never know, but I suspect that the community representatives must be important enough they would not hold it at CS Pattani

Filed under: Political Sciences , close door talk, indonesia, south of thailand

Opps, should we check if it is smuggled from the south?

The Star Online reported:

Friday September 12, 2008

Family selling firearms smuggled from Thailand

HARIAN METRO front-paged the report of a family believed to have been actively running a firearms business, selling M16 rifles smuggled from Thailand.

According to police records, the family, including the father, son and daughter-in-law, had criminal records which included drug abuse and firearms offences.

The 54-year-old head of the family is said to have 15 criminal cases against him in the country and is now in jail in Songkhla, southern Thailand, for firearms offences and human trafficking.

On Aug 29, Perlis police obtained information from their south Thailand counterparts and raided the man’s house in Kampung Utan Aji where they discovered an M16 rifle with 41 bullets.

The man’s wife, 41, was detained on suspicion of firearms possession.

Perlis police chief Datuk Ghazali Mohd Amin said the M16 rifle and live bullets were found by a team from the state police contingent headquarters serious crimes division in a Volvo parked in the compound at 7.30pm.

“The man is currently serving a two-year prison sentence Ghazali said.

“We are communicating with our Thai counterparts to get more information on how the rifle and bullets were brought into the country,” he added.

Police are also on the lookout for the son and his wife to assist in investigations.

Those with information can call the police at 04-9082276.

The man is jailed in Songkla.. mmm…

Filed under: Political Sciences , arms smuggling, assault rifle, deep south, south of thailand

Taxi Radio Recruits Democratic Guards.

Democratic Lover Club is recruiting democratic guards to defense people in any anti-dictatorship and democratic promotion activities. They are requested to act and protect other people in the rally to prevent loss like in the past. [I think they referred to the crash with PADs, resulting in injuries and one death.] People who are interested can bring a photo and their ID to apply at Taxi radio for membership card, which will be issued to prevent infiltration.

The application is voluntary, part -time, unpaid.

Men are encouraged to apply, healthy and strong women are also welcomed, call: 02 642 8277

Phone in

Filed under: Political Sciences , anti PADs, anti-dictatorship alliance, sanam luang, Taxi community radio, taxi radio

70:30/50:50/100:0 and another 19 September

Chamlong claimed that Chavalit Yongjaiyuth also proposed 50:50 elected/selected representative concoction. The 70:30 which were booed by politicians and academics alike was said to be a sample model to allow people from every occupation to participate in the [parliamentary] politics. In short, it will allowed people to become full-time politicians, not just participating in politics.

Politicians have many occupation and the deadlock of allowing people to participate in politic is just a myth unless anyone would be willing to lift constraints that prevent normal people to participate in politics, in and outside of the House of Representative.

The selective elective dilemma is not the choice of the people just because the PADs has five reps that speak for the rest of the people in its own newly established PADs police state. If you want to know what it is like, Prachatai has a clip by Channel 7 reporters.

Even the PADs leader convinced that the rally is democratic and it is underpin by a (coup induced ) democracy that reduce people participation to zero, unless you count giving flowers to soldiers and take photo shots with them.

The theme “majority rules is not enough” will finally paved way for a more competitive business of being selected. An average Somchai (as in average Joe) would be likely not to be selected. It would be people with certified outstanding good conduct, NGOs like Suriyasai Katasila, media tycoon like someone connected to the PADs, and national-wide famous NGOs.

So where do this lead to. Probably another old politics or early Thaksin I. I remember everybody think that he would be the new hope. And how has it gone down the hill since then. The selected representatives could also be PADs nominees.

Upon discovering that even Abhisit could not be single drop of pure water among other “Saen Saep” low oxygen canal MPs who hold more than 5 per cent shares in companies or who dispensed movie tickets, would this, too, be the future or selected representative?

Alright, another thing to worry: whether the selected or elected will be effective to deal with recession.

Filed under: Political Sciences , livelihood and politics, New Politics, PADs

Prawes’ comment hit me with a surprise (again)

Just read this in Matichon

นพ.ประเวศ กล่าวต่อว่า ปัญหาใหญ่ของสังคมคือการขาดความเป็นธรรม/ โดยเฉพาะชนชั้นล่างที่ไม่มีเกียรติศักดิ์ศรี–> นั่นคือความเป็นคุณธรรมพื้นฐานความเป็นมนุษย์ /ถ้าไม่มีความเป็นธรรม บ้านเมืองก็อยู่ไม่ได้ หากเกิดความเป็นธรรมในประเทศไทย ปัญหาความยากจนก็จะหมดไปภายใน 5 ปี อย่างไรก็ตาม ประชาธิปไตยจะต้องบูรณาการจากทุกด้าน อย่ามองการเมืองแยกส่วน เพราะการเมือง เศรษฐกิจและสังคมต้องร่วมกันช่วยเหลือประเทศ

[My reading: Dr. Prawes said the major problem facing the society is lack of morality, particularly among the lower class without pride and dignity, the fundamental morality of being human. Without morality, the country cannot survive. With morality, the country will be free from poverty in five years...]

If I read against the grain, I would be more stunned by this statement. Did he really mean the lower class do not have dignity or they are…

He said The major problem in the society is lack of morality. The certain part of society cited as an example is “particularly among the lower class.” I opted to read it as “morality” rather than “justice” because the next clue given was “pride and dignity, the fundamental morality of being human.”

Contrary to Prawes comment, concept of bank for the “poor” or loan for the “poor” would never work if the “lower” class do not have dignity and just escape with their loans. While he used to criticized lack of morality among upper class and the rich, Prawes turned his backto comment that the lower class, fortunately, the majority of the society, is a particular example of low morality level.

If he is some no-name one, I would just turn my deaf ear to his comment, but being able to inscribe and influence public opinion, he should not give a bigotry comment like this.

In a less than his perfect world, democracy is one person, one vote, the “lower” class vote for higher class to rule and to corrupt. How would he describe that? The same overused “they were bought?”

The minority elite rich have to cope with their “counterpart.” The lower class is their ugly alter images, that they may not like to accept the majority’s voice. Yet the lower class is here to stay, because the structures that keep the rich getting richer, the poor getting poorer. A person like Prawes should question justice rather than citing that rather than pointing out that the lower class are problematic in terms of justice/equity or morality like dignity. Because human dignity is equal for the rich or the poor. The fundamental morality is not dignity but equality.

Filed under: Political Sciences , old politics, political legitimacy, Political Sciences, social critic

Six degrees of separation: The good, the Bad and the Aesthetic of the Ugly in “Old” Politics

The first news:
Apirat Kosayolthin Democrat’s Party, acting as the Bangkok Governor and the other for miscalculating the width of Soi Ruam Ruedee, resulting in an order for construction of high building, which is a violation of a regulation issued under the Building Control Act, Kwankaew Vajarotaya is among the plaintiff.

Expect the ripples of “loyalty?”

Likewise, even though Somchai,the talk of the town is an in-laws and I can hardly find six degrees of separation between him an Thaksin, it is hope that the PPP party mechanism and their steadfast cling to the seat will make him reign his acts. The survival of Thaksin Shinawatra and the government may coincide. He will have to compromise covert operations to bargain for the whole party’s survival, which should be easier after the rain have discouraged PADs protesters, never mind their less sane policies that change on daily basis.

His important mission would be, the pending party dissolution case in court, to hold on as long as possible and constitution amendment (which must be handle with extreme care, given his in-laws position.

Given Samak has been hand picked as a “nominee” anyone, despite relative connection, can be as well. Yet Somchai is a potential candidate to keep the party from falling apart.

Interest and power games are the most important factor that keep politicians in check. Good politicians, elected or selected politicians can bad. The democratic system can make sure that any monitoring mechanism for violation of law is functional, that the parliament works to scan their own flock (to prevent political ban and party dissolution) and the opposition parties, not just covering the wrong doing until they are caught to keep the popularity of the party, then the need to worry about elected or selected members, good and moral members will be less important.

The beauty of it? This mechanism will not require politicians to be what they are not. They don’t have to be good or moral. They just have to do the right things by law and make sure that they have effective remedies that people, the majority people that will elect them will appreciate. Populism is a term coined by people whose lives do not depend on it. The rich, proud and minority people like you and I can go to private hospitals if we must, use taxi instead of free bus, have enough to pay for our rents, bills and expensive books and have enough time to blog, have good credit to borrow money from bank, are offered to have a credit card, rather than begging to pay higher interest rate from loan sharks because they don’t have any assets or credits to secure reasonable loans. This, my readers, are the people majority of people that political parties should target.

Call it populism, advance vote buying or anything.

During the last two years, there are many head of the government that were asked or coaxed to resign for the good of the parties, if they did not do so willingly. I hope PPP is cultivating the merging of personal/party interests to keep its position as long as possible and I wish them luck in doing so.

Most of the time, if the self-scrutiny for personal/party benefits run well it would even make the system more effective than recruiting outsiders or third party to run a government, because they would hardly think about making good impression for the next election. They can kill the time doing something like post-coup, third party government usually do, just linger on and pray that they can quit. They can draw just, efficient, sufficient, morally right policies because they do not have to worry about reelection and about their potential customers. Like PADs, they keep their loyal heart to the principles, that is so hard to chew.

Filed under: Political Sciences , old politics, politics PADs, PPP

Gone (Defense) shopping

Here is Thailand defense shopping list

Most of the package is devoted to a $152.8 million Singapore Technologies-designed amphibious frigate. The Royal Thai Armed Forces will also buy thousands of Israeli assault rifles and Russian shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles.
…
Thailand has also inked a contract to buy 15,037 Tavor TAR-21 assault rifles from Israel. This $30.1 million buy will boost the Thai military’s total stock of the bullpup-design rifles to more than 30,000 – replacing many of the Army’s aging rifles.

That purchase is coupled with a $4.4 million order for 531 Israeli Negev light machine guns, raising Thailand’s stock to more than 1,100. These will be partially paid for from a special budget tied to securing the violence-scarred Malaysian border, where separatist Muslim insurgents continue to target soldiers and civilians. Russia will also supply 36 Igla-S shoulder-fired, surface-to-air missiles to Thailand – with seven launching mechanisms – for nearly $4 million.

The original source, quoting Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political and security analyst with Bangkok’s Chulalongkorn University (ISIS)as commented that “The contracts, which Thitinan described as “scattered,” suggest the Thai military lacks a “coherent long-term procurement strategy.”

Yet the plan to purchase the light machine guns has been approved since Surayud’s government (at the same time as the scandal of Ukraine armored vehicles, remember?)

Sometimes it is not about “strategy,” as the deals are often “confidential” for national security, no one can really investigate the explanation why such as such defenses products were selected. Perhaps they gauge it from see too many Cambodian soldiers carrying B40 rocket launchers.

Filed under: Political Sciences , internal security, south of thailand, thailand, arms trade, defense purchase, small arms, light weapons, military vehicles